CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 BEIRUT 04860 161244Z
ACTION NEA-09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3900
CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
DIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
INFO AMEMBASSY AMMAN IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ATHENS IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY CAIRO IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY PARIS IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ROME IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY TEHRAN IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV IMMEDIATE
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GER IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 4860
E.O. 11652: GDS
TAGS: PINS, LE, PLO
SUBJECT: BEIRUT SITREP - 1000Z
REFS: A. BEIRUT 4845; B. BEIRUT 4844
SUMMARY: FIGHTING CONTINUES IN TROUBLE AREAS AROUND BEIRUT AS EFFORTS ARE UNDER WAY TO IMPLEMENT EFFECTIVELY CEASEFIRE WHICH WAS REPORTEDLY ARRANGED FOR 1000Z APR 15. WE ANTICIPATE THAT, EVEN IF EVENTUALLY EFFECTIVE, COMPLETE END TO FIGHTING WILL TAKE SOME HOURS. END SUMMARY.
1. APPARENT PROGRESS DURING AFTERNOON AND NIGHT APR 15 TOWARD IMPLEMENTING CEASEFIRE BETWEEN PALESTINIANS AND PHALANGISTS PROVIDES FIRST REAL BASIS FOR HOPE THAT DETERIORATING SITUATION IN BEIRUT AND REMAINDER OF COUNTRY MAY BE BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL. ARAB LEAGUE SYG MAHMUD RIAD IS CREDITED BY MANY LOCAL PAPERS APPEARING MORNING APR 16 WITH SUCCESS IN WORKING OUT MODUS VIVENDI BETWEEN CONTENDING ELEMENTS BUT IT APPEARS HE HAD ASSISTANCE OF LOCAL FIGURES, INCLUDING PRES FRANJIE (STILL CONVALESCING IN AUB HOSPITAL), HENRI PHARAON, AND, POSSIBLY, SHIITE LEADER IMAM MUSA SADR (REPORTS CONFLICTING). RIAD, WHO MET WITH PALESTINIANS AND LEBANESE "PROGRESSIVE" PARTIES (BUT NOT RPT NOT PHALANGIST LEADER, PIERRE GEMAYEL, WITH WHOM PRES FRANJIE APPARENTLY HANDLED CONTACTS), WILL PROBABLY LEAVE BEIRUT TODAY AT ABOUT MID-DAY.
2. MAJOR DEVELOPMENT PAVING WAY FOR EFFORTS TO BRIDGE GAP BETWEEN COMBATTANTS WAS DECISION BY PHALANGE LEADER GEMAYEL TO ACCEDE TO PRES FRANJIE'S REQUEST THAT HE TURN OVER TO GOL AUTHORITIES TWO PHALANGISTS IMPLICATED IN SUNDAY'S INCIDENTS IN AIN AL RAMMANEH. ACCORDING TO OUR INFORMATION, TWO SUSPECTS WERE DELIVERED TO GOL SECURITY OFFICERS AT 2130Z ON APR 15. PM SOLH OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED ARRESTS AT 2315Z. POSSIBLE MINOR SNAG WAS SUBSEQUENT PLO STATEMENT THAT SEVEN RPT SEVEN PHALANGISTS WERE SOUGHT, ALTHOUGH WAFA IN EARLY MORNING RELEASE REPORTEDLY CONTINUED LINE THAT GOL CONTINUES EMPLOY ITS GOOD OFFICES TO CONTAIN CRISIS. SOMEWHAT MORE SERIOUS, IN TERMS OF EFFORTS TO ENFORCE ANY CEASEFIRE, WAS REPORTEDLY PALESTINIAN "REJECTION" FRONT ASSERTION THAT ITS FORCES WOULD NOT RPT NOT ACCEPT RECONCILIATION WITH PHALANGE.
3. RELIABLE US CORRESPONDENT HAS INFORMED US THAT ARAFAT, WHO HAS ALLEGEDLY ARRIVED IN BEIRUT, ESTIMATED THAT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR CEASEFIRE TO BE EFFECTIVE. ALTHOUGH SITUATION ON PALESTINIAN SIDE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME, WE ALSO HAVE UNCONFIRMED REPORT THAT ARAFAT HAS BEEN FAVORING CEASEFIRE FOR LAST THIRTY-SIX HOURS, BUT HAS BEEN OPPOSED BY FATAH-NOTABLE ABU IYAD, WHOM ARAFAT LEFT IN CHARGE OF OPERATIONS IN BEIRUT WHEN HE RETURNED APR 14 TO DAMASCUS. IF TRUE, THIS INTERNAL CONFLICT COULD ACCOUNT FOR BOTH DELAY IN IMPLEMENTING CEASEFIRE AND ARAFAT'S DECISION TO RESUME CHARGE LOCALLY.
4. DETAILS OF REPORTED CEASEFIRE PLAN REMAIN FRAGMENTARY. WE ORIGINALLY HEARD TRUCE WAS TO OCCUR AT 1200Z APR 15 BUT IT OBVIOUSLY DID NOT HOLD. WE ARE NOW INFORMED BY SEVERAL SOURCES THAT IT WENT INTO EFFECT AS OF 1000Z APR 15 (MIDNIGHT APR 15/16 LOCALLY) AND THAT EFFORTS NOW UNDER WAY TO GET WORD TO ISOLATED UNITS ON BOTH SIDES. MAIN STICKING POINT WILL BE ABILITY OF "MODERATE" LEADERSHIP OF BOTH PHALANGE AND PALESTINIANS TO ENFORCE THEIR POLICY ON ELEMENTS WHO MAY NOT WISH TO SEE PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF CRISIS. WE HAVE SEVERAL REPORTS OF LOWER LEVEL PHALANGISTS WHO DOUBT POSSIBILITY OF SETTLEMENT AND PREPARED TO FIGHT ON. LIKEWISE, THERE ARE GROUNDS FOR QUESTIONING ABILITY AND/OR WILLINGNESS OF PALESTINIANS TO CONTROL COMPLETELY "REJECTIONISTS", WHO PROBABLY INCLUDE AMONG THEIR ALLIES NUMBER OF LOCAL MUSLIM AND LEFTIST ELEMENTS.
5. FIRING AND EXPLOSIONS PERSISTED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING AFFECTING AREAS WHICH HAVE BEEN SCENE OF FIERCEST FIGHTING SINCE SUNDAY. ROVING BANDS ALSO ENTERED CENTER OF TOWN AND RAS BEIRUT TO PLANT EXPLOSIVE CHARGES (MAINLY PLASTIQUE) IN ABDEL AZIZ STREET AND AT BUILDING HOUSING FORMER PRES CAMILLE CHAMOUN'S OFFICES IN VERDUN STREET. WE WOULD PLACE TOTAL DEAD TO DATE THROUGHOUT LEBANON AT BETWEEN 100 AND 120.
6. DURING APR 15, SOME EFFORTS WERE MADE IN VARIOUS PARTS OF COUNTRY TO KEEP STRIFE FROM ADOPTING CONFESSIONAL CHARACTER. MARONITE LEAGUE, HIGHER ISLAMIC COUNCIL AND NATIONAL ORG (MUSLIM) MET AND REPORTEDLY AGREED THAT "MISUNDERSTANDING BETWEEN MILITIAS" MUST NOT RPT NOT BE ALLOWED TO ENGAGE MUSLIM AND CHRISTIAN COMMUNITIES. LOCAL "APPEASEMENT COMMITTEE" ALLEGEDLY FORMED IN SIDON UNDER LEADERSHIP OF DEPUTY BIZRI TO KEEP LINES OF COMMUNICATION AND RECONCILIATION OPEN BETWEEN MUSLIMS AND CHRISTIANS.
7. SOLH CABINET HAS APPEARED THUS FAR TO HAVE PLAYED LITTLE DIRECT ROLE IN EVENTS OR EFFORTS TO ARRANGE CEASEFIRE AND PM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ISOLATED EVEN AMONG HIS OWN MINISTERIAL COLLEAGUES. SOME PARLIAMENTARY DEPUTIES, INCLUDING NUMBER IN CABINET, ATTEMPTED HOLD PARLIAMENTARY SESSION AT 0800Z THIS MORNING, BUT WERE UNABLE TO OBTAIN QUORUM.
8. BEIRUT AIRPORT IS OPERATING THIS MORNING AT ABOUT 80 PERCENT NORMAL WITH ONE-THIRD ITS STAFF UNABLE TO REACH AREA. AIRPORT HAS NO FUEL BUT PLANES ARE REFUELING BEFORE OR AFTER BEIRUT AND CONSEQUENTLY FLIGHTS SO FAR UNAFFECTED. AUB HOSPITAL PRESENTLY HAS FOOD FOR EIGHT DAYS OPERATION.
9. ALL AMCITS ARE SAFE. USIS REGIONAL SERVICE CENTER IN SINN AL FIL AND KENNEDY CENTER ARE CLOSED AS ARE MOST BUSINESSES THROUGHOUT TOWN.
GODLEY
CONFIDENTIAL NNN
Originally classified CONFIDENTIAL · Declassified and released by U.S. Department of State under EO Systematic Review, 05 July 2006 · Now UNCLASSIFIED
Summary
Fighting continues in troubled areas around Beirut as efforts are underway to implement effectively a ceasefire reportedly arranged for 1000Z [10:00 AM GMT, or midnight local time April 15/16].[1] We anticipate that even if eventually effective, complete end to fighting will take some hours.
1.
Apparent progress during the afternoon and night of April 15 toward implementing a ceasefire between Palestinians and Phalangists provides the first real basis for hope that the deteriorating situation in Beirut and the remainder of the country may be brought under control. Arab League Secretary-General Mahmud Riad[2] is credited by many local papers appearing the morning of April 16 with success in working out a modus vivendi between the contending elements, but it appears he had assistance from local figures, including President Frangieh[3] (still convalescing in the American University Hospital), Henri Pharaon,[4] and, possibly, Shia leader Imam Musa Sadr[5] (reports conflicting). Riad, who met with Palestinians and Lebanese “Progressive”[6] parties — but not with Phalangist leader Pierre Gemayel, with whom President Frangieh apparently handled contacts — will probably leave Beirut today around midday.
2.
The major development paving the way for efforts to bridge the gap between the combatants was the decision by Phalange leader Gemayel to accede to President Frangieh’s request that he turn over to GOL authorities two Phalangists implicated in Sunday’s incidents in Ain al-Rammaneh.[7] According to our information, the two suspects were delivered to GOL security officers at 2130Z on April 15. Prime Minister Solh officially announced the arrests at 2315Z.
A possible complication was the subsequent PLO statement that seven — not two — Phalangists were sought,[8] although WAFA[9] in an early morning release reportedly continued the line that the GOL continues to employ its good offices to contain the crisis. Somewhat more serious, in terms of efforts to enforce any ceasefire, was a reportedly Palestinian “rejection front”[10] assertion that its forces would not accept reconciliation with the Phalange.
3.
A reliable U.S. correspondent has informed us that Arafat, who has allegedly arrived in Beirut, estimated that twenty-four hours will be required for the ceasefire to be effective. Although the situation on the Palestinian side remains unclear, we also have an unconfirmed report that Arafat has been favoring a ceasefire for the last thirty-six hours but has been opposed by Fatah notable Abu Iyad,[11] whom Arafat left in charge of operations in Beirut when he returned to Damascus on April 14. If true, this internal conflict could account for both the delay in implementing the ceasefire and Arafat’s decision to resume charge locally.[12]
4.
Details of the reported ceasefire plan remain fragmentary. We originally heard the truce was to occur at 1200Z April 15 but it obviously did not hold. We are now informed by several sources that it went into effect as of 1000Z April 15 (midnight April 15/16 locally) and that efforts are now underway to get word to isolated units on both sides. The main sticking point will be the ability of “moderate” leadership on both sides — Phalange and Palestinian — to enforce their policy on elements that may not wish to see a peaceful resolution of the crisis. We have several reports of lower-level Phalangists who doubt the possibility of settlement and are prepared to fight on. Likewise, there are grounds for questioning the ability and/or willingness of the Palestinians to control completely the “rejectionists,” who probably include among their allies a number of local Muslim and leftist elements.
5.
Firing and explosions persisted throughout the night and into this morning, affecting areas that have been the scene of the fiercest fighting since Sunday. Roving bands also entered the center of town and Ras Beirut to plant explosive charges (mainly plastique) in Abdel Aziz Street and at a building housing former President Chamoun’s offices on Verdun Street. We would place the total dead to date throughout Lebanon at between 100 and 120.[13]
6.
During April 15, some efforts were made in various parts of the country to keep the strife from adopting a confessional [sectarian] character. The Maronite League, Higher Islamic Council, and National Organization (Muslim) met and reportedly agreed that a “misunderstanding between militias” must not be allowed to engage Muslim and Christian communities. A local “appeasement committee” was allegedly formed in Sidon under the leadership of Deputy Bizri[14] to keep lines of communication and reconciliation open between Muslims and Christians.
7.
The Solh Cabinet has appeared thus far to have played little direct role in events or efforts to arrange the ceasefire, and the Prime Minister is becoming increasingly isolated even among his own ministerial colleagues.[15] Some parliamentary deputies, including a number in the cabinet, attempted to hold a parliamentary session at 0800Z this morning, but were unable to obtain a quorum.
8.
Beirut airport is operating this morning at about 80 percent of normal, with one-third of its staff unable to reach the area. The airport has no fuel, but planes are refueling before or after Beirut and consequently flights are so far unaffected. AUB Hospital presently has food for eight days of operation.[16]
9.
All American citizens [AMCITS] are safe. The USIS Regional Service Center in Sinn al Fil and the Kennedy Center are closed, as are most businesses throughout town.
GODLEY[17]